Will undecided voters move toward McCain come election day? Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight doesn’t think so -
The Undecideds
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A somewhat higher proportion of whites (and Latinos) are uncommitted, but the differences are not overwhelming.
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Another problem is that we haven’t been distinguishing undecided voters from third-party voters. There is an argument that third-party voters should be treated […]

Has anyone noticed that Sarah Palin’s central claim to political fame is a fraud? She represents herself as a fiscal conservative who abhors pork-barrel projects and said no thanks to the “bridge to nowhere” — a $398 million span that would have linked Ketchikan, Alaska, to its airport across the Tongass Narrows. But as mayor […]

The first poll with McCain ahead by 5% last week got a lot of press, but here’s one with more interesting results…
One intriguing result from Sunday’s Washington Post/ABC poll (which showed Barack Obama maintaining a narrow, 4 percent lead among likely voters) was the Democratic candidate’s vault over John McCain on the question of leadership.
For […]

The Myth of a Toss-Up Election
Except for a few days when the Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls showed a tie, Barack Obama has led John McCain in every national poll in the past two months. Obama’s average margin has consistently been in the 4-6 point range during this time. By contrast, the polls in 2000 […]