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20th Congressional Too Close To Call

So I voted early yesterday on the way to PA to deal with the passing of a relative. There was a decent number of people milling about our polling place, and the same paper punch voting machines were in use. I checked last night and found the election at 50-50%, with ninety percent of districts reporting, and things haven’t changed much in the past twelve hours.

Dem Scott Murphy enjoys a razor-thin margin of 59 votes – 77,344, opposed to Tedisco’s 77,285 – according to the final tally printed in today’s Times Union. That turnout is better than the expected number of around 90,000 total.

Currently outstanding are 5,900 absentee ballots received, with more expected in the coming days. These have been sealed until a court hearing on April 6th, per an injunction obtained by Republican election lawyer John Ciampola to impound all paper ballots. It appears that registered Republicans have an edge in absentee ballots cast; but considering that they’re the majority party in the district, it shouldn’t come as a surprise or necessarily indicate an advantage.

Libertarian candidate Eric Sundwall was pushed off the ballot in the week leading up to the election. This was also per efforts by Ciampola, as Sundwall was expected to pull a few percentage points from Tedisco.

I did a quick google and found the usual partisan hack commentaries floating around. But ultimately it looks as if either candidate will follow lock-step with their respective party once in office. With the large Dem majority in the House, this one seat makes little difference. Still, I would rather have the guy who agrees with the Obama administration, and not the one cock-blocking it.

Despite the sorry state of the GOP nationally, this election was Tedisco’s to loose. He had the large early lead and name recognition as an elected official, and the 20th is a Republican district – but making the election an early referendum on the Obama administration wasn’t a smart move. The stink and political fallout from corporate bonuses and the still-miserable economy haven’t stuck to the White House yet. Meanwhile, nobody in the 20th really has any bearing on how either candidate stands on issues unrelated with Obama’s handling of the economy. Murphy defused extraneous issues by supporting civil unions (“Not marriage”) and gun control during the televised debate, and in recent days self-describing himself as an “economic conservative.” All of this mirroring Tedisco.

For what it’s worth, Murphy handled himself well during said televised debate, and appeared more capable of going off-talking point and responding to the question at hand. I believe he’ll be a capable representative, pending a longish, drawn out process to choose the winner. I say they just draw straws.

Let’s Sell Wine In Grocery Stores

Finally, the Governor’s office has come up with a reasonable plan to increase state revenue. Shocked?

New York is one of 15 states to still limit wine sales to liquor stores. Grocers are limited to selling beer, which means a scant 2,700 non-restaurant retail locations selling wine across the state. That puts NY 46th among all states in number of outlets per capita for the purchase of wine. And we’re actually a wine producing state, believe it or not – the third largest producer behind California and Washington.

Lifting the ban and allowing licensed grocers to supply wine seems a no-brainer.

  • NY consumers would save some $80 million a year with the increased competition in sales
  • NY state will see an additional $159 million in the first two years as a result of the change – much of that in licensing fees alone
  • State wine producers will see increased demand
  • And an estimated 2,000 net jobs will be created per an American Economics Group study

New Yorkers support the measure by two to one, with the only obvious lobby against being… drum roll… Liquor stores, currently enjoying their monopoly. In the face of change, a lot of unsubstantiated claims have been made about increased availability to minors, as well as job losses. Apparently “mom and pop” liquor stores across the state will shutter as underaged teens wholesale adopt wine as their drink of choice.

Fortunately, we have 35 other states to observe and determine whether these claims are valid. Right across the state border, in Vermont, liquor stores co-exist peacefully with grocers selling wine. Massachusetts, for their part, already had this discussion several years back and came to a conclusion at odds with NY’s liquor store lobby:

A newly released study of the Massachusetts Wine at Food Stores Initiative concluded that updating state law to allow grocery stores to sell wine would save Massachusetts consumers an estimated $26 to $36 million dollars each year. The study noted that data from the 34 other states that already allow grocery stores to sell wine show that grocery stores are as good or better than package stores at enforcing minimum drinking age laws and that competition in wine sales from grocery stores does not drive package stores out of business.

Looking at the statistics, it’s clear that there is an untapped potential in wine sales here. Meanwhile, as Massachusetts found, liquor stores will still have their place for liquor, wine, and specialty drinks, as well as the expertise and knowledge in regards to what they sell. Because anyone who thinks Wal-Mart selling wine will drive “mom and pop” out of the liquor biz has obviously never asked a Wal-Mart employee a question (I mean really). With grocers like Wegmans remaining committed to selling local products, I forecast a boom for state wineries. Let’s put them back on the map, and wine on our tables.

20th Congressional Special Election

Because elections are so great, we’ve decided to extend the season by having a special election end of the month, filling Gillibrand’s seat in the House. GOP nominee Jim Tedisco, state Assembly minority leader, did have the name recognition and an early double digit lead over Dem rival Scott Murphy. But the most recent Siena poll released March 12th shows Murphy cutting Tedisco’s lead down to four percent.

“While Murphy continues to enjoy stronger support among Democratic voters than Tedisco has among enrolled Republicans, the biggest shift is among independent voters, who previously gave Tedisco a significant 45-31 percent lead but now favor Murphy by a 43-37 percent margin.

In a Siena poll released Feb. 26, voters said Tedisco would do a better job than Murphy would representing them on six issues. Murphy now leads on two of the issues, including the most important issue for voters in the 20th district: the economy.

Murphy now leads Tedisco on the economy 42 percent to 38 percent — two weeks ago, Tedisco led 34 percent to 30 percent.”

Murphy is a venture capitalist and lives within the district. Media saturation has been about equal, but it definitely seems Murphy’s ads have been more successful. After some fairly soft punches between the two, Tedisco has promised to run positive from here on. Whoopey. Obviously the economy is the big issue and it’s promising that Murphy is viewed so favorably here. I wasn’t impressed with Scott Murphy at first sight and still have trouble remembering the guy’s name at times, but he’s making a run for it and I’d love to see our seat stay blue.

Worth watching will be a televised debate March 24th at 7PM on WNYT; one week before the election on the 31st. Happy poll-going.

Gillibrand Is In

Gillibrand and Hillary

So David Paterson announced Hillary’s successor, and it’s my very own congressional representative: Kirsten Gillibrand. Paterson’s choice seems politically expedient. Gillibrand is a solid fundraiser (the 2008 election was the most expensive on record), savvy and ambitious enough to perhaps succeed in the 2010 special election and become a name brand in her own right. If the pick works out, it could also give Paterson a needed upstate boost.

So far the main complaints have been that she’s perhaps too conservative and whether there were other senior, more appropriate options. Certainly Gillibrand isn’t a household name outside of the area. But I’ve supported her as my representative in Congress and she’s arguably as good a replacement as any for the senate seat.

Gillibrand beat John Sweeney in 2006 (that alone makes her OK in my book). Sweeney was a four term Republican congressman who voted along the lines of the Christian Coalition 69% of the time and whose positions included escalating the “war” on drugs, a ban on gay marriage, and social security privatization. Sweeney was named one of the “20 Most Corrupt Members of Congress” in a 2006 report by the Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington. He was instrumental in the 2000 Florida recount fiasco, cementing Dubya’s misbegotten presidency (R.I.P.). And in January 2001, Sweeney crashed his Jeep into a utility pole coming from a bar, resulting in a power outage in my very own neighborhood. The state trooper on the scene did not administer a sobriety test or even allow the fire department to be called to direct traffic. Sweeney stayed in office till 2007. Sheesh.

Gillibrand runs with the Blue Dog Coalition, but bear with me. It’s not a deal-breaker. She’s got a certain left-of-center flair, for our district, anyway – favoring stem cell research and gay marriage, tax cuts for middle income families and state healthcare programs for children. Her position on gun control proves to be a non-issue for me. Gillibrand was raised in the Capital Region, and most of the 20th district is classic, gun loving rural country. She attempted to make a loopy “Hunting and Fishing Holiday” to commemorate responsible gun use, but otherwise believes in enforcing current laws on the books (she also supported 2007′s National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) Improvement Act). She espouses fiscal “responsibility” which, frankly, sounds pretty neat in an age of trillion dollar a year deficits. She very naturally supports investment in local infrastructure and agriculture (not to mention high tech) and that should translate well to the upstate as a whole.

Gillibrand campaigns hard, has two children (one of which born last year, while she held office), and is plugged into the state political machine (the nightly news might underestimate this). She’s a bona fide Democratic example of a woman successfully juggling both personal life and political career. She does put the junior back into “junior New York Senator” after heavyweight Hillary, but give it a moment and see what happens.

All indications are that Paterson wanted to fill Hillary’s seat with a woman. Understandable. After Caroline Kennedy’s crude campaign and unimpressive performance in the spotlight, Gillibrand seems a logical, dare I say qualified, choice. Here’s hoping.

20th District

Two quotes from a rush piece on TIME.com:

“As a child she was loud and talked constantly. She talked so loud we had her hearing tested, but it turned out her hearing was fine and that she just wanted to get her point across.”
— Polly Rutnik, Gillibrand’s mother. Albany Times-Union, May 13, 2007.

“I think politically [the pick] will help the governor, it will help the team. She will do some things for them upstate … Conservative democrats are winning so politically it might be a plus. It gives balance.”
— Rev. Al Sharpton, on the benefits of Gillibrand’s selection. FOX News, Jan. 22, 2009

Oh Spitzer

“Disappointed” is about how I’d sum up this Eliot Spitzer fiasco. His two terms as Attorney General were extremely productive, and I was more than willing to vote for him for governor in 2006. I was a fan, even. But his abrasive methods didn’t work as well in the role of governor – a role that requires compromise and finesse. Popular at first, Spitzer’s poll numbers began to plummet after NY Republicans successfully portrayed the “drivers licenses for immigrants” as giving illegal immigrants and terrorists free reign. (To steal our jobs and drown our kittens, respectively, I guess.) In reality, we already issue driver’s licenses to foreign citizens (so they aren’t a valid proof of citizenship) and issuing them regardless of legal status would make highways safer and resolve numerous issues. But the Spitzer team didn’t spin it the right way.

And then, bam, the New York Times releases this investigation. Spitzer’s battleship is sunk.

I don’t consider prostitution particularly offensive, and considering the prostitute lives in Manhattan and makes a $1,000/hr, it’s not as if Spitzer was victimizing a woman unable to make a decision in the matter. But it’s illegal, it’s a scandal, and he was the attorney general and governor who was a “fucking steamroller” in combatting fraud, corruption and any other sort of government decay.

Hypocrisy? Oh yes.

If he hadn’t resigned, the scandal would have dragged on and paralyzed the state government. He had to. I’m disappointed. What a waste.

What’s really amazing is how completely and utterly of a political meltdown this has been, for someone who very well might have gone on to higher levels of government. (Higher than governor of NY you ask? Well, there’s a certain white building in Washington. Although, admittedly, his thinning hair would make him a more likely VP candidate.)

The silver lining being that Lieutenant Governor David Patterson seems to be a more than adequate replacement. Time will tell.

One curious thing I’ve noticed is how we aren’t seeing the same charges of a “liberal media” as we saw when the New York Times printed McCain’s “alleged” romantic indiscretions with a lobbyist. (I hear the groans: the difference is Spitzer trafficked and paid.) What, lobbyism isn’t tantamount to prostitution? Oh, right. It’s legal. Guess the punditocracy’s charges of “liberal media” only stick sometimes. Funny thing, that.

Google Maps Is A Bit Silly.

1. Head north from N Tioga St – go 0.1 mi
2. Turn left at E Buffalo St – go 0.1 mi
3. Continue on W Buffalo St – go 0.8 mi
4. Continue on Cliff St – go 1.0 mi
5. Continue on Trumansburg Rd – go 4.8 mi
6. Continue on RT-96 – go 3.9 mi
7. Continue on E Main St – go 0.9 mi
8. Bear left at W Main St – go 14 mi

9. Turn right at RT-414/RT-96 – go 23 mi

10. Take the RT-14 N ramp – go 0.3 mi
11. Bear right at RT-14 – go 0.2 mi
12. Turn left into the I-90 entry ramp – go 0.8 mi
13. Merge into I-90 W – go 20 mi

14. Take the RT-332 exit 44 to Canandaigua/Victor – go 0.5 mi
15. Continue on RT-332 – go 0.3 mi
16. Bear right at RT-332 S – go 1.2 mi
17. Turn right at RT-96 – go 3.4 mi

Does it really need to distinguish between I-90′s on-ramp and I-90? Will I somehow miss the merging if Google does not spell it out for me?

Now I like to play it safe. That’s why I looked up some directions before just setting off. But this is a bit ridiculous.

The occasion for my trip to the fine town of Victor, NY? Well, it’s a bit embarrassing.. I popped off my “o” key, and sorta broke it. I might be able to smash it on there, but.. I did break it, and ought to just go get it fixed.

Especially since I’m still under warranty. (Thank you Apple 1-year warranty!)

I feel so stupid. But oh well. I’m sure the drive will be a nice way to spend a Wednesday. Hell, it’s 75 miles. There is an Apple store in Syracuse, which is nearly twenty miles closer, but the drive to Victor looks nicer. I’ll be driving right up inbetween Lakes Cayuga and Seneca. Will bring a camera or two, have lunch on the way.

I can only hope that the guys at the store will be able to slap a new button on, so I won’t be without the PowerBook (or have to drive back up to Victor again). Please.

And no laughing at my stupidity. :neutral:

Eliot Spitzer Gains Support From NY Mayors

Leading New York Mayors Endorse Spitzer

Cities from Across the State Represented

New York, NY (December 5, 2005) – Spitzer 2006, Eliot Spitzer’s campaign for Governor today announced the support of 35 city mayors and mayors-elect from across the state. The list of supportive mayors includes all of the largest upstate cities, as well as leading mayors from smaller cities.

Supporters include incoming Buffalo and Rochester Mayors Byron Brown and Bob Duffy as well as longtime outgoing Mayors Anthony Masiello and Bill Johnson.

Attorney General Spitzer responded to this tremendous support: “I am honored to enjoy such broad-based support from across the state. In my years as Attorney General, I have worked closely with many of these mayors and I am proud that they have offered their endorsement of my candidacy. I am particularly pleased to have incredible support from the cities of upstate New York, where the next Governor will need to work in great concert with local leadership to help turn the state around. I look forward to working with this impressive group to make that happen.”

The mayors’ support comes as Spitzer has accumulated a number of high-profile endorsements from organized labor, environmentalists and clergy leaders in the past month.

A complete list of mayors endorsing Spitzer follows.

Albany – Jerry Jennings
Buffalo – Anthony Masiello
Buffalo – Mayor-Elect Byron Brown
Rochester – Bill Johnson
Rochester – Mayor-Elect Bob Duffy
Syracuse – Matt Driscoll

Binghamton – Mayor-Elect Matt Ryan
Canandaigua – Ellen Polimeni
Cohoes – John McDonald
Corning – Mayor-Elect Frank Coccho
Cortland – Tom Gallagher
Elmira – Mayor-Elect John Tonello
Fulton – Daryl Hayden
Geneva – Don Cass
Glens Falls – Mayor-Elect Leroy Akins
Hornell – Shawn Hogan
Hudson – Mayor-Elect Dick Tracy
Ithaca – Carolyn Peterson
Jamestown – Sam Teresi
Kingston – James Sottile
Lackawanna – Norman Polanski
Little Falls – Ted Wind
Mt. Vernon – Ernie Davis
New Rochelle – Tim Idoni
North Tonawanda – Dave Burgio
North Tonawanda – Mayor-Elect Larry Soos
Oneida – Leo Matzke
Oneonta – Kim Muller
Oneonta – Mayor-Elect John Nader
Port Jervis – Gary Lopriore
Poughkeepsie – Nancy Cozean
Rensselaer – Mayor-Elect Dan Dwyer
Saratoga Springs – Mayor-Elect Valerie Keehn
Schenectady – Brian Stratton
Tonawanda – Jack Gallagher

I’m pleased to see the mayors of several cities which I spend a lot of time in, including Ithaca’s Carolyn Peterson and Saratoga Spring’s Mayor-Elect Valerie Keehn. And, of course, Albany’s Jerry Jennings.

Spitzer2006.com